Swing races

Updated 8:55 PM ET

Races we're watching

Live counts from AP via NYT. Early counts only; no race is called until AP calls it and a second outlet confirms.

Senate

Georgia Senate

SWINGSenate race we're watching

Photo: U.S. Senate Photographic Studio / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Jon Ossoff (D)1,776,159 60.6%

Mike Collins (R)1,154,180 39.4%

65.9% counted

Ossoff (D) leads

AP via NYT · 8:53 PM ET

Likely DCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

North Carolina Senate

SWINGSenate race we're watching

Roy Cooper (D)1,712,610 62.4%

Michael Whatley (R)981,533 35.8%

68.8% counted

Cooper (D) leads

AP via NYT · 8:53 PM ET

Likely DCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

AtlasIntel · D+14.9 · 2026-10-28 – 2026-11-01

Minnesota Senate

SWINGSenate race we're watching

Photo: Office of Governor Tim Walz & Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Peggy Flanagan (D)— —

Michele Tafoya (R)— —

Polls close 9:00 PM ET

Lean DCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

AtlasIntel · D+2.4 · 2026-10-28 – 2026-11-01

New Hampshire Senate

SWINGSenate race we're watching

Photo: United States Congress / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Chris Pappas (D)122,593 59.3%

Photo: Unknown author / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

John E. Sununu (R)80,448 38.9%

29.6% counted

Pappas (D) leads

AP via NYT · 8:52 PM ET

Lean DCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

AtlasIntel · D+8.1 · 2026-10-28 – 2026-11-01

Alaska Senate

SWINGSenate race we're watching

Photo: Leah Herman, House Creative Services / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Mary Peltola (D)— —

Dan Sullivan (R)— —

Polls close 12:00 AM ET

Toss UpCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

AtlasIntel · D+5.5 · 2026-10-28 – 2026-11-01

InsiderAdvantage · Tie · 2026-10-31 – 2026-11-01

NYT/Siena · D+2 · 2026-10-23 – 2026-11-01

Iowa Senate

SWINGSenate race we're watching

Josh Turek (D)— —

Photo: Iowa General Assembly / Wikimedia Commons, Copyrighted free use

Ashley Hinson (R)— —

Polls close 9:00 PM ET

Toss UpCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

AtlasIntel · D+4.1 · 2026-10-28 – 2026-11-01

NYT/Siena · D+1 · 2026-10-23 – 2026-11-01

Rasmussen Reports · R+1 · 2026-10-27 – 2026-10-31

Emerson College Polling · R+1.6 · 2026-10-05 – 2026-10-06

Kansas Senate

SWINGSenate race we're watching

Adam Hamilton (D)275,141 63.7%

Photo: U.S. Senate Photographic Studio / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Roger Marshall (R)149,111 34.5%

34.6% counted

Hamilton (D) leads

AP via NYT · 8:53 PM ET

Toss UpCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

AtlasIntel · D+7 · 2026-10-28 – 2026-11-01

NYT/Siena · D+5 · 2026-10-23 – 2026-11-01

Emerson College Polling · D+2.4 · 2026-10-26 – 2026-10-28

Maine Senate

SWINGSenate race we're watching

Troy D. Jackson (D)12,477 54.4%

Susan M. Collins (R)10,465 45.6%

2.8% counted

Jackson (D) leads

AP via NYT · 8:53 PM ET

Toss UpCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

AtlasIntel · D+9.1 · 2026-10-28 – 2026-11-01

NYT/Siena · D+6 · 2026-10-23 – 2026-11-01

Michigan Senate

SWINGSenate race we're watching

Photo: Conlan Houston / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

Abdul El-Sayed (D)291,176 54.7%

Mike Rogers (R)232,915 43.7%

10.8% counted

El-Sayed (D) leads

AP via NYT · 8:53 PM ET

Toss UpCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

AtlasIntel · D+7.1 · 2026-10-28 – 2026-11-01

NYT/Siena · D+11 · 2026-10-23 – 2026-11-01

Emerson College Polling · D+2 · 2026-09-12 – 2026-09-14

Ohio Senate

SWINGSenate race we're watching

Photo: Office of Senator Sherrod Brown / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Sherrod Brown (D)1,095,284 54%

Photo: United States Senate / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Jon Husted (R)853,421 42.1%

41.7% counted

Brown (D) leads

AP via NYT · 8:53 PM ET

Toss UpCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

AtlasIntel · D+7.5 · 2026-10-28 – 2026-11-01

NYT/Siena · D+5 · 2026-10-23 – 2026-11-01

Texas Senate

SWINGSenate race we're watching

James Talarico (D)2,290,950 58.3%

Ken Paxton (R)1,576,541 40.1%

37.7% counted

Talarico (D) leads

AP via NYT · 8:53 PM ET

Toss UpCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

AtlasIntel · D+6 · 2026-10-28 – 2026-11-01

NYT/Siena · D+7 · 2026-10-23 – 2026-11-01

Emerson College Polling · D+1.6 · 2026-10-17 – 2026-10-19

Nebraska Senate

SWINGSenate race we're watching

Candidate not entered (D)— —

Photo: United States Congress / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Pete Ricketts (R)— —

Polls close 9:00 PM ET

Lean RCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

South Carolina Senate

SWINGSenate race we're watching

Annie Andrews (D)611,856 51.3%

Photo: Rosa Pineda, United States Senate / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Darline Graham (R)559,245 46.9%

59.2% counted

Andrews (D) leads

AP via NYT · 8:53 PM ET

Lean RCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

Florida Senate

HELDSenate race we're watching

Photo: Florida House of Representatives / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Angie Nixon (D)3,882,643 48%

Photo: Senator Scott's Press Office / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Ashley Moody (R)4,107,513 50.8%

97.1% counted

Moody (R) leads

AP via NYT · 8:53 PM ET

Mississippi Senate

SWINGSenate race we're watching

Scott Colom (D)8,138 54.5%

Photo: whywouldyoudothat / Wikimedia Commons, CC0

Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)6,529 43.7%

1.7% counted

Colom (D) leads

AP via NYT · 8:53 PM ET

House

KY-06 House

SWINGSwing House seat

Zach Dembo (D)103,702 54.6%

Photo: Voice of America / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Ralph Alvarado (R)78,851 41.5%

62.1% counted

Dembo (D) leads

AP via NYT · 8:43 PM ET

Toss UpCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

IN-05 House

SWINGSwing House seat

J.D. Ford (D)110,518 53.8%

Photo: House Creative Committee / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Victoria Spartz (R)94,750 46.2%

75.3% counted

Ford (D) leads

AP via NYT · 8:51 PM ET

Lean RCook Political Report (via Washington Post), Nov 2026 · pre-election

IN-01 House

SWINGSwing House seat

Photo: House Creative Committee / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Frank J. Mrvan (D)71,111 64.3%

Barb Regnitz (R)39,502 35.7%

44.9% counted

Mrvan (D) leads

AP via NYT · 8:53 PM ET

Lean DCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

NC-01 House

SWINGSwing House seat

Photo: Library of Congress / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Donald G. Davis (D)90,271 51.1%

Laurie Buckhout (R)81,448 46.1%

57% counted

Davis (D) leads

AP via NYT · 8:53 PM ET

Toss UpCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

NC-11 House

SWINGSwing House seat

Jamie Ager (D)166,630 60.3%

Photo: NC House / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Jennifer Balkcom (R)105,954 38.4%

83% counted

Ager (D) leads

AP via NYT · 8:53 PM ET

Lean RCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

OH-07 House

SWINGSwing House seat

Brian Poindexter (D)77,184 62.4%

Max L. Miller (R)46,576 37.6%

37.7% counted

Poindexter (D) leads

AP via NYT · 8:53 PM ET

Toss UpCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

OH-09 House

SWINGSwing House seat

Photo: United States Congress / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Marcy Kaptur (D)38,892 42.9%

Photo: SchOg / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0

Derek Merrin (R)51,671 57.1%

28.6% counted

Merrin (R) leads

AP via NYT · 8:53 PM ET

Lean RCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

OH-10 House

SWINGSwing House seat

Kristina Knickerbocker (D)78,886 57.6%

Photo: US House of Representatives / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Mike Turner (R)55,195 40.3%

44.2% counted

Knickerbocker (D) leads

AP via NYT · 8:53 PM ET

Lean RNYT results page rating, Nov 2026 · pre-election

OH-15 House

SWINGSwing House seat

Don Leonard (D)55,067 57.6%

Photo: U.S. House of Representatives / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Mike Carey (R)38,384 40.2%

31% counted

Leonard (D) leads

AP via NYT · 8:52 PM ET

Lean RNYT results page rating, Nov 2026 · pre-election

MI-04 House

SWINGSwing House seat

Sean McCann (D)— —

Photo: US House of Representatives / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Bill Huizenga (R)— —

Awaiting first votes

Toss UpCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

MI-07 House

SWINGSwing House seat

William Lawrence (D)31,743 39.1%

Tom Barrett (R)48,456 59.6%

19.9% counted

Barrett (R) leads

AP via NYT · 8:53 PM ET

Toss UpCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

MI-10 House

SWINGSwing House seat

Christina Bertrand Hines (D)9,668 44.4%

Michael Bouchard (R)11,687 53.6%

5.7% counted

Bouchard (R) leads

AP via NYT · 8:50 PM ET

Toss UpCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

PA-01 House

SWINGSwing House seat

Bob Harvie (D)61,260 67.2%

Brian K. Fitzpatrick (R)29,925 32.8%

24.9% counted

Harvie (D) leads

AP via NYT · 8:47 PM ET

Toss UpCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

PA-07 House

SWINGSwing House seat

Bob Brooks (D)26,572 70.9%

Photo: House Creative Services / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Ryan Mackenzie (R)10,904 29.1%

12.6% counted

Brooks (D) leads

AP via NYT · 8:50 PM ET

Lean RCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

PA-08 House

SWINGSwing House seat

Paige Cognetti (D)63,791 70.4%

Robert P. Bresnahan, Jr. (R)26,885 29.6%

31.9% counted

Cognetti (D) leads

AP via NYT · 8:51 PM ET

Lean RCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

PA-10 House

SWINGSwing House seat

Photo: James Newton / jnewt-maps on Bluesky / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

Janelle Stelson (D)32,751 71.2%

Photo: United States Congress / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Scott Perry (R)13,239 28.8%

14.7% counted

Stelson (D) leads

AP via NYT · 8:48 PM ET

Lean RCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

ME-02 House

SWINGSwing House seat

Matt Dunlap (D)8,741 50.6%

Photo: Jason Savage / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 3.0

Paul LePage (R)8,546 49.4%

4.5% counted

Dunlap (D) leads

AP via NYT · 8:52 PM ET

Lean RNYT results page rating, Nov 2026 · pre-election

TX-15 House

SWINGSwing House seat

Bobby Pulido (D)— —

Photo: U.S. House of Representatives / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Monica De La Cruz (R)— —

Awaiting first votes

Toss UpCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

TX-23 House

SWINGSwing House seat

Katy Padilla Stout (D)75,576 55.8%

Photo: Gage Skidmore / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

Brandon Herrera (R)55,544 41%

50.3% counted

Stout (D) leads

AP via NYT · 8:50 PM ET

Lean RNYT results page rating, Nov 2026 · pre-election

TX-34 House

SWINGSwing House seat

Photo: Kristie Boyd; U.S. House Office of Photography / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Vicente Gonzalez (D)34,056 49.3%

Eric Flores (R)31,996 46.4%

33.1% counted

Gonzalez (D) leads

AP via NYT · 8:28 PM ET

Lean RCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

TX-35 House

SWINGSwing House seat

Johnny C. Garcia (D)82,264 66.2%

Carlos De La Cruz (R)41,910 33.8%

44.4% counted

Garcia (D) leads

AP via NYT · 8:51 PM ET

Toss UpCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

IA-01 House

SWINGSwing House seat

Photo: Iowa General Assembly / Wikimedia Commons, Copyrighted free use

Christina Bohannan (D)— —

Photo: Iowa General Assembly / Wikimedia Commons, Copyrighted free use

Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)— —

Polls close 9:00 PM ET

Lean RCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

IA-02 House

SWINGSwing House seat

Photo: Iowa General Assembly / Wikimedia Commons, Copyrighted free use

Lindsay James (D)— —

Joe Mitchell (R)— —

Polls close 9:00 PM ET

Toss UpCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

IA-03 House

SWINGSwing House seat

Photo: Iowa General Assembly / Wikimedia Commons, Copyrighted free use

Sarah Trone Garriott (D)— —

Zachary Nunn (R)— —

Polls close 9:00 PM ET

Lean RCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

AZ-01 House

SWINGSwing House seat

Photo: Gage Skidmore / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0

Amish Shah (D)— —

Thomas Jay Feely IV (R)— —

Polls close 9:00 PM ET

Lean RCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

AZ-02 House

SWINGSwing House seat

Jonathan Nez (D)— —

Photo: United States Congress / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Eli Crane (R)— —

Polls close 9:00 PM ET

Lean RNYT results page rating, Nov 2026 · pre-election

AZ-06 House

SWINGSwing House seat

JoAnna Mendoza (D)— —

Photo: United States Congress / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Juan Ciscomani (R)— —

Polls close 9:00 PM ET

Lean RCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

CA-22 House

SWINGSwing House seat

Photo: Maremoto Fund / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0

Randy Villegas (D)— —

David G. Valadao (R)— —

Polls close 11:00 PM ET

Toss UpCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

CO-05 House

SWINGSwing House seat

Jessica Killin (D)— —

Photo: Ike Hayman, House Creative Services / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Jeff Crank (R)— —

Polls close 9:00 PM ET

Toss UpCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

FL-14 House

SWINGSwing House seat

Photo: United States Government / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Kathy Castor (D)151,118 51.1%

Photo: Florida House of Representatives / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Mike Beltran (R)136,004 46%

98.1% counted

Castor (D) leads

AP via NYT · 8:45 PM ET

Toss UpCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

FL-22 House

SWINGSwing House seat

Pia Dandiya (D)149,627 51.9%

Casey Askar (R)138,552 48.1%

95.9% counted

Dandiya (D) leads

AP via NYT · 8:53 PM ET

Toss UpCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

MT-01 House

SWINGSwing House seat

Sam Forstag (D)— —

Aaron Flint (R)— —

Polls close 10:00 PM ET

Toss UpCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

NY-17 House

SWINGSwing House seat

Photo: DHSgov / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Cait Conley (D)— —

Michael Lawler (R)— —

Polls close 9:00 PM ET

Toss UpCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

Emerson College Polling · D+2.3 · 2026-09-27 – 2026-09-29

SC-01 House

SWINGSwing House seat

Nancy Lacore (D)94,664 52.9%

Jenny Costa Honeycut (R)81,575 45.6%

56.9% counted

Lacore (D) leads

AP via NYT · 8:53 PM ET

Toss UpCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

VA-01 House

SWINGSwing House seat

Shannon L. Taylor (D)157,987 49.9%

Robert J. Wittman (R)157,901 49.9%

78.6% counted

Taylor (D) leads

AP via NYT · 8:53 PM ET

Toss UpCook Political Report, Oct 2026 · pre-election

Governor

Georgia Governor

SWINGGovernor race we're watching

Photo: Office of U.S. Senator David Perdue / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)1,651,882 56.4%

Rick Jackson (R)1,279,431 43.6%

66% counted

Bottoms (D) leads

AP via NYT · 8:53 PM ET

Toss UpCook, Oct 2026 · pre-election

New Hampshire Governor

SWINGGovernor race we're watching

Cinde Warmington (D)97,340 46.5%

Photo: United States Senate / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Kelly Ayotte (R)103,611 49.5%

30% counted

Ayotte (R) leads

AP via NYT · 8:53 PM ET

AtlasIntel · R+5.9 · 2026-10-28 – 2026-11-01

Ohio Governor

SWINGGovernor race we're watching

Photo: air force / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Amy Acton (D)1,129,949 55.9%

Vivek Ramaswamy (R)836,777 41.4%

41.6% counted

Acton (D) leads

AP via NYT · 8:53 PM ET

Lean DCook, Oct 2026 · pre-election

AtlasIntel · D+7.9 · 2026-10-28 – 2026-11-01

NYT/Siena · D+6 · 2026-10-23 – 2026-11-01

Michigan Governor

SWINGGovernor race we're watching

Photo: Parent55 / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

Jocelyn Benson (D)305,672 57.4%

Photo: United States Congress / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

John James (R)219,440 41.2%

10.8% counted

Benson (D) leads

AP via NYT · 8:53 PM ET

Lean DCook, Oct 2026 · pre-election

AtlasIntel · D+8 · 2026-10-28 – 2026-11-01

NYT/Siena · D+13 · 2026-10-23 – 2026-11-01

Pennsylvania Governor

SWINGGovernor race we're watching

Photo: Governor Tom Wolf from Harrisburg, PA / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0

Josh Shapiro (D)664,373 78.4%

Stacy Garrity (R)175,908 20.7%

16% counted

Shapiro (D) leads

AP via NYT · 8:53 PM ET

Maine Governor

SWINGGovernor race we're watching

Photo: Chellie Pingree / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Hannah Pingree (D)10,870 51%

Robert Charles (R)8,533 40%

2.6% counted

Pingree (D) leads

AP via NYT · 8:53 PM ET

AtlasIntel · D+7.4 · 2026-10-28 – 2026-11-01

NYT/Siena · D+12 · 2026-10-23 – 2026-11-01

Texas Governor

SWINGGovernor race we're watching

Photo: LBJ Library from Austin / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Gina Hinojosa (D)2,229,670 56%

Photo: NASA Johnson Space Center / NASA-JSC/ROBERT MARKOWITZ / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Greg Abbott (R)1,701,255 42.7%

38.2% counted

Hinojosa (D) leads

AP via NYT · 8:52 PM ET

Lean RCook, Oct 2026 · pre-election

AtlasIntel · D+1.6 · 2026-10-28 – 2026-11-01

NYT/Siena · D+1 · 2026-10-23 – 2026-11-01

Emerson College Polling · R+4.5 · 2026-10-17 – 2026-10-19

Iowa Governor

SWINGGovernor race we're watching

Photo: Rob Sand for Governor / Wikimedia Commons, CC0

Rob Sand (D)— —

Zach Lahn (R)— —

Polls close 9:00 PM ET

Lean DCook, Oct 2026 · pre-election

AtlasIntel · D+10.1 · 2026-10-28 – 2026-11-01

NYT/Siena · D+8 · 2026-10-23 – 2026-11-01

Emerson College Polling · D+3.7 · 2026-10-05 – 2026-10-06

Arizona Governor

SWINGGovernor race we're watching

Photo: Gage Skidmore / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0

Katie Hobbs (D)— —

Photo: U.S. Congress / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Andy Biggs (R)— —

Polls close 9:00 PM ET

Likely DCook, Oct 2026 · pre-election

State

NY Attorney General

SWINGNY AG race

Photo: WBLS / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 3.0

Letitia James (D)— —

Saritha Komatireddy (R)— —

Polls close 9:00 PM ET

ActiVote · D+13 · 2026-10-12 – 2026-10-26

Siena · D+15 · 2026-10-19 – 2026-10-22

From the TFN watch list: competitive Senate, governor and House races from Cook Political Report ratings and our own election-night race list, plus the NY Attorney General race.