AtlasIntel, which rated among the most accurate pollsters of 2024, released its final state polls Monday (likely voters, Oct. 28-Nov. 1). Democrats lead every Senate race it tested:
North Carolina: Cooper 56.4, Whatley 41.5. Maine: Jackson 53.1, Collins 44.0. New Hampshire: Pappas 52.3, Sununu 44.2. Michigan: El-Sayed 53.5, Rogers 46.4. Texas: Talarico 52.2, Paxton 46.2. Ohio: Brown 51.4, Husted 43.9. Kansas: Hamilton 51.9, Marshall 44.9. Alaska: Peltola 50.1, Sullivan 44.6. Iowa: Turek 50.5, Hinson 46.4. Minnesota: Flanagan 48.1, Tafoya 45.7.
For governor: Benson 53.2, James 45.2 in Michigan; Sand 54.1, Lahn 44.0 in Iowa; Acton 51.8, Ramaswamy 43.9 in Ohio; Holscher 49.9, Masterson 45.6 in Kansas; Pingree 49.5, Charles 42.1 (Bennett 5.2) in Maine; Hinojosa 50.1, Abbott 48.5 in Texas; Kreiss-Tomkins 51.5, Wilson 34.0 (Bronson 9.4) in Alaska. Republican Kelly Ayotte leads in New Hampshire, 49.7 to 43.8.
Rasmussen Reports has Iowa the other way: Hinson 47, Turek 46, Libertarian Thomas Laehn 3, 5% unsure (901 likely voters, Oct. 27-31, ±3). In early October it had Turek up 47-43.
Our read: AtlasIntel weights its samples to past vote ("previous electoral behavior"), so its Texas sample should look like a state Trump won by about 14 points. Talarico's lead comes from inside that electorate: in the crosstabs, Paxton holds 90.6% of Trump 2024 voters while Talarico holds 100% of Harris voters and wins independents 64.5-28. Kansas (Trump +16) at D+7 and Ohio (Trump +11) at D+7.5 imply swings of 18-23 points. Yet Minnesota, which Harris won by 4, is only D+2.4. That gap is the strongest argument that some of these numbers run hot. Rasmussen's Iowa poll shows the same defection pattern but smaller: Hinson keeps 80% of Trump voters, and Turek wins unaffiliated voters 49-37.
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Nov 2 · 9:57 PM ET
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