Final forecasts: Silver puts Democrats above 80% for the Senate; DDHQ more cautious at 64%

On the eve of the midterms, the major forecasts agree Democrats are favored in both chambers but split on how confident to be about the Senate.

Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin model pushed Democrats' chance of winning the Senate above 80% for the first time late Sunday, after the final New York Times/Siena battleground polls, Mediaite reports. Silver has had Democrats in the mid-90s for the House for weeks. "Democrats could actually absorb a modest-sized polling error and perhaps still prevail," he wrote.

Decision Desk HQ is more cautious: it gives Democrats a 64% chance to win the Senate with a projected 52 seats, and an 84% chance to win the House with a projected 241 seats. The Hill reports DDHQ now projects Texas and Alaska flipping toward Democrats. Betting markets sit in between: Kalshi traders give Democrats about 73% for the Senate and 94% for the House.

Our read on the gap: the Senate number hinges on red-state races (Texas, Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio) where Democrats need the polls to be right in places that have underestimated Republicans before. The Times itself flagged that registered white Democrats were about 30% more likely than white Republicans to answer its final polls. Silver's 80% trusts that weighting fixes that; DDHQ's 64% bakes in more doubt.