Governor races: Kalshi has Democrats favored in 22 of 36, including 5 GOP-held seats. Vermont, Florida and Texas are the closest Republican holds

As of about 6 AM ET on Election Day, Kalshi contract prices favor Democrats in 22 of the 36 governor races on the ballot. That count includes five seats Republicans hold now: Alaska (Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, 90%), Iowa (Rob Sand, 88%), Ohio (Amy Acton, 83%, against Vivek Ramaswamy), Nevada (Aaron Ford, 75%, against Gov. Joe Lombardo) and Georgia (Keisha Lance Bottoms, 73%, against Rick Jackson).

The closest races where Republicans are favored: Vermont, where Gov. Phil Scott is at 67% (Democrat Amanda Janoo 33%); Florida, where Byron Donalds is at about 62% against David Jolly (38%); and Texas, where Gov. Greg Abbott is at about 62% against Gina Hinojosa (38%). Kalshi also posted at 6 AM that Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) has an 86% chance of re-election in New Hampshire.

Democratic seats with a real contest on the market: Wisconsin (David Crowley 86% against Tom Tiffany), Oregon (Gov. Tina Kotek 83% against Christine Drazan), Michigan (Jocelyn Benson 95% against John James) and Arizona (Gov. Katie Hobbs 92% against Andy Biggs). New York has Gov. Kathy Hochul at 96% against Bruce Blakeman. Kansas had no active Kalshi market when we checked.

Our read: These are prices, not polls. The board assumes a strong Democratic night, and it moves with the national House and Senate markets. The races to watch tonight are the ones near the middle, Vermont, Florida, Texas, Georgia and Nevada, because that is where a polling miss in either direction would flip the outcome.

Update, Nov. 3 (8:30 AM ET): Two small moves toward Republicans since 6 AM. Florida's Byron Donalds is now at about 65% (from 62%), and Georgia's Keisha Lance Bottoms is at 70% (from 73%) against Rick Jackson. Michigan's Jocelyn Benson slipped to 93%. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott is at 63%. The count of Democratic favorites is unchanged at 22 of 36.