Election Day House odds: Lawler-Conley in NY-17 is a near coin flip; markets lean Democratic in PA-1 and Montana

Prediction markets point to a Democratic House majority (Kalshi about 94%), but a handful of individual races are still close. Kalshi contract prices as of about 3 AM ET Tuesday, showing the chance the Democrat wins:

New York 17 (Rockland/Westchester): Cait Conley 55%, Rep. Mike Lawler 45%. The closest race on our board, and the one that matters most to Rockland readers. Montana 1: Sam Forstag 59%, Aaron Flint 41%. Michigan 4: Sean McCann 61% against Rep. Bill Huizenga. Pennsylvania 1: Bob Harvie 64% against Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick. Kalshi itself posted overnight that Harvie had a 65% chance to flip the seat. Virginia 1: Shannon Taylor 68% against Rep. Rob Wittman. Michigan 10: Christina Hines 75%. Michigan 7: William Lawrence 78%. Texas 23: Kalshi posted overnight that Republican Brandon Herrera's odds against Democrat Katy Padilla Stout were climbing, and he is narrowly favored.

Other New York-area races are much less close on the markets: Tom Suozzi (NY-3) and Laura Gillen (NY-4) at about 92%, Josh Riley (NY-19) at 97%, Rebecca Bennett against Rep. Tom Kean Jr. in NJ-7 at about 95%.

Our read: A market at 55-45 is not a forecast of a Conley win; it's a coin flip with a slight lean. Lawler has outrun the top of the ticket before, and his race will turn on Election Day turnout in Rockland, where early voting reportedly rose 81% from 2022, according to Rockland News.

Update, Nov. 3 (6 AM ET): Overnight moves on Kalshi. In NY-17, Kalshi posted at 5:30 AM that Rep. Mike Lawler had "gained ground" to 45%, and by about 6 AM the contract had Democrat Cait Conley at 57%. Rep. Lauren Boebert's chance in CO-4 rose to 66%. Republican Brad Knott rose to 66% in NC-13, up from 57%. In PA-1, Democrat Bob Harvie slipped to 62% from 64% against Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick. Montana's open 1st District stayed at 59% for Democrat Sam Forstag.

Update, Nov. 3 (8:30 AM ET): New moves on Kalshi after polls opened. In Maine's 2nd District, Republican Paul LePage rose to 59% against Democrat Matt Dunlap (41%). In Colorado's 3rd, Democrat Dwayne Romero became the favorite, hitting 55% in a Kalshi post, and the race is now about even with Rep. Jeff Hurd, with both contracts trading near 50%. Kalshi also posted that Rep. Shomari Figures' chance to hold Alabama's 2nd District rose to 52%. NY-17 held at 57% for Cait Conley, as Westchester County deals with ballot scanners down at most polling sites (see our story). In Pennsylvania's 7th, Democrat Bob Brooks is at 88% against Rep. Ryan Mackenzie.