Iran's oil output plunges 46%, below what its own refineries burned before the war, as the US blockade bites

Iran's crude oil production fell to 1.86 million barrels a day in October, down 46% from pre-war levels, according to the International Energy Agency's latest monthly report, Iran International reports. That is below the more than 1.873 million barrels a day Iran's refineries consumed in 2024-25, before the war, according to an Iranian Oil Ministry report reviewed by the outlet.

The collapse comes under a U.S. naval blockade that has effectively halted Iranian crude exports and sharply restricted shipments of fuel products. Ship-tracking firm Kpler has said Iranian crude loadings stopped in mid-August, leaving Tehran little choice but to pump close to what it can use at home.

Kpler senior analyst Homayoun Falakshahi told Iran International that Iranian naphtha loadings have fallen by 100,000 barrels a day in recent months and that fuel oil loadings are down to 15% of pre-war levels. He warned that if Iran cannot export naphtha, it may be forced to partially shut down some refinery units. Several units at the Assaluyeh and Mahshahr petrochemical complexes, which account for 70% of Iran's petrochemical output, were also hit during the war.

Some liquefied petroleum gas has slipped through. United Against Nuclear Iran counted 11 LPG cargoes past the blockade, and Reuters put LPG exports that evaded it from mid-July to mid-October at 4.1 million barrels, which Iran International calculates is less than 14% of the same period last year. There have been no confirmed Iranian naphtha cargoes through the blockade.

Meanwhile Iran's neighbors are pumping more. OPEC members plus the UAE produced 27.16 million barrels a day in October, up 1.96 million from September, and the IEA said global oil production exceeded demand in October for the first time since the war began. Saudi Arabia reported raising output to 10.5 million barrels a day.