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  • 7:30 PM ET: Polls closed in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia. Next at 8 PM ET: the next wave, including Pennsylvania, most of Michigan and Florida's western Panhandle.NYT election results
  • Florida governor, about 53% counted: Jolly (D) 2,283,152, Donalds (R) 2,104,827. Mostly early and mail votes; Panhandle closes at 8 PM ET. Too early to call.AP via NYT
  • Betting markets, 7:28 PM ET: Senate control, Democrats 80% / Republicans 21% on Kalshi, 80.5% / 19.5% on Polymarket, 88% / 12% on PredictIt. House: Democrats 97-98%.Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt
  • AP calls Georgia's 5th District for Rep. Nikema Williams (D) and the 13th for Jasmine Clark (D).AP via NYT
  • Florida Senate special, about 54% counted: Nixon (D) 2,257,727, Moody (R) 2,195,850. Too early to call.AP via NYT
Voters line up outside a polling station near Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Election Day
Photo: Photo: John Locher / AP via NBC News
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VERIFIEDElections · Polls

Exit poll: the Latino 'comeback' for Democrats is a 16-point edge. In 2018 it was 33

Published
At a glance: The NBC News Exit Poll has 43% of Latino voters calling themselves Democrats today, 27% Republicans and 31% independents. · Sources: Chris Withans on X
FACTS

The NBC News Exit Poll has 43% of Latino voters calling themselves Democrats today, 27% Republicans and 31% independents. That's a 16-point Democratic edge in party ID.

Democrats did gain from 2024, when the gap was 10 points (39% D, 29% R). But in Trump's first midterm, 2018, the Democratic edge among Latino voters was 33 points. Today's number is less than half of that, on a night when the national mood is far worse for Republicans than it was in 2018: the same poll has Trump's approval at 38%, against 45% in 2018.

Commentator Chris Withans was first to flag the comparison on X: "That is not what pre-election polling showed." NBC's own September poll with Telemundo had shown Latino voters swinging hard away from Trump and the GOP.

These are early exit-poll numbers, and they get reweighted to the real vote as counts come in overnight.

SOURCES

UPDATES

  1. 5:39 PM ET

    Published.