Nevada, five hours in: Republicans are winning Election Day, even in Clark, but not by 2022's margins

Five hours into Election Day voting, Republicans make up 40.4% of in-person voters statewide, Democrats 28.1% and everyone else 31.5%, according to Jon Ralston's count. That's 25,000 Republicans to 17,422 Democrats out of 61,941 ballots, a Republican edge of about 7,600. In Clark County Republicans are narrowly ahead, 13,604 to 12,983 out of 39,744.

In 2022, Republicans won Election Day statewide 47% to 25%, a margin of about 47,000 votes, and won Clark's Election Day 43% to 28%. So far they're running well behind those numbers.

The cushion Republicans have to overcome is about 35,000. Counting everything cast so far, 827,463 ballots, Democrats lead 317,215 to 282,173, about 4 points. Clark accounts for a Democratic edge of roughly 67,500, Washoe about 5,400, and the rural counties give Republicans about 37,900.

Update, Nov. 3 (afternoon): Jon Ralston's turnout model still has Democrats winning 14 of 15 scenarios even as Republicans cut into their lead. His read on the governor's race: Joe Lombardo needs Aaron Ford to lose Democratic votes in Clark County.