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New York Post composite on the NY-17 race, with an orange Westchester ballot bag inset
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BETTING MARKETElections · Prediction Markets

Bettors: NY-17 still a coin flip with a lean, Lawler 43-46% on the markets as Westchester counts by hand

Published
At a glance: Even with the Westchester scanner mess, the betting markets have barely moved on NY-17. · Sources: Polymarket (NY-17), Kalshi API (NY-17), Kalshi API (Senate control) +1
REPORT

Even with the Westchester scanner mess, the betting markets have barely moved on NY-17. Polymarket has Democrat Cait Conley at about 57.5% and Rep. Mike Lawler at about 43.5%. Kalshi has Conley at 54%, putting Lawler at 46%.

Nationally, Kalshi gives Democrats 93% to win the House and 73% to win the Senate, so Republicans are at about 1 in 4 to hold the Senate. Polymarket has the House at 94.5% for Democrats and the Senate at 75.5%. In the Senate races, Kalshi has Iowa at 50-50 and Maine at 70% for the Democrat.

Markets are crowds betting money, not votes. Lawler beat the sitting chairman of the House Democrats' campaign arm in 2022, and Westchester's emergency ballots will not be counted until after polls close at 9 p.m.

SOURCES

UPDATES

  1. 53m ago

    Published.