The Filtered NewsThe Filtered NewsThe Filtered NewsAll the news. None of the noise.
Get our news on WhatsAppWhatsAppJoin WhatsApp
  • KY-06 swing race, 6.5% counted: Alvarado (R) 10,914, Dembo (D) 8,024. Too early to call.AP via NYT
  • Florida Senate special, about 52% counted: Nixon (D) 2,189,003, Moody (R) 2,073,067. Too early to call.AP via NYT
  • Florida governor, about 51% counted: Jolly (D) 2,216,425, Donalds (R) 1,989,289. Mostly early and mail votes so far; Panhandle closes at 8 PM ET. Too early to call.AP via NYT
  • AP calls Kentucky's 3rd District for Democratic Rep. Morgan McGarvey.AP via NYT
  • Next at 7:30 PM ET: polls close in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia.NYT election results
The Texas State Capitol in Austin
Photo: Photo: Farragutful / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0)
Back to Elections
BETTING MARKETElections · Polls

Texas Senate: bettors put Talarico at 70-75% to win, with most Texas polls closing at 8 PM ET

Published
At a glance: Traders are pricing Democrat James Talarico as the favorite to win the Texas Senate seat tonight. · Sources: Polymarket on X
REPORT

Traders are pricing Democrat James Talarico as the favorite to win the Texas Senate seat tonight. Kalshi's Texas Senate contract had Democrats at 75% at about 5:25 PM ET, and Polymarket posted at 5:13 PM ET that Talarico was "now 70%" to become the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Texas in 38 years.

Most Texas polls close at 8 PM ET (7 PM Central), and the El Paso area at 9 PM ET. No votes have been counted yet. The markets are moving on early-vote data and exit polls, not results.

What the ground data says so far: Montgomery County, which Trump won by about 45 points, had 45,046 Election Day check-ins by 4:05 p.m. against 58,032 for all of Election Day 2024, per @Freespeech212's tally of county data. Dallas County was 18.5% behind its 2024 pace at 1:30 PM Central, per county data compiled by @AndrewMillerSSC. Election Day vote in Texas usually leans Republican.

Elsewhere on Kalshi at the same time: Ohio Senate D 72%, Maine D 69%, Alaska D 68%, Kansas D 65%, Iowa D 51%. Senate control: D 74%, up a point from an hour ago.

SOURCES

UPDATES

  1. 5:25 PM ET

    Published.